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M94A2315.TXT
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1994-10-25
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Document 2315
DOCN M94A2315
TI Exponential phase of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Japan.
DT 9412
AU Inaba I; Institute of Population Problems, Tokyo, Japan.
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):332 (abstract no. PC0263). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370260
AB OBJECTIVE: Since the establishment of AIDS surveillance system in Japan
at May 1989, the reported cumulative AIDS incidence in Japan has been
growing exponentially. However the number of HIV infecteds can not be
observed by official statistics. Our main concern here is to estimate
the prevalence of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Japan and its possible
consequences. METHODS: We apply the stable population theory in
demography to model the exponential phase of HIV/AIDS epidemic. Under
the assumption of stable growth of infected population, we induce some
mathematical relations between the Malthusian parameter, incidence rate,
the size of cumulative AIDS incidence, the number of infected population
and the basic reproduction ratio. Next some numerical simulations are
done to examine possible consequences of controlling the basic
reproduction ratio. RESULTS: We conclude that the ratio of the
cumulative AIDS incidence to unknown size of infected population
(exclude infection by contaminated blood products) in the exponential
phase in Japan could be estimated to be about one to nine. However it is
observed that this estimate is rather sensitive to the choice of the
incubation period distribution. The number of living AIDS patients would
continue to grow over 20 years from now. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The
mathematical method developed here to estimate the prevalence of
HIV/AIDS epidemic in the exponential phase is simple and easy to handle,
but it would be helpful for policy makers to recognize the growth
characters and its moment of infected populations.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION &
CONTROL/TRANSMISSION Computer Simulation *Disease Outbreaks
Forecasting Human HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION &
CONTROL/TRANSMISSION HIV Seroprevalence/*TRENDS Japan/EPIDEMIOLOGY
Models, Statistical *Population Surveillance MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).